Methodological assumptions of the CHASE-PL project:
Assembling a set of data and data products (from different sources) and testing for change.
Projections via empirical-statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models climate projections, bias correction / post-processing of downscaled projections, arriving at projections of extreme daily precipitation, and modelling of future snow conditions.
Calibration and validation of SWAT model using multi-site calibration method, identification of in-stream and riparian ecosystems water needs, identification of key crops, current and future land use including different agricultural practices, and scenario based analysis of impact of climate change on ecosystems and agricultural production.
Uncertainty analysis: identification of sources of uncertainty, quantification of components of uncertainty, and devising a framework for reducing uncertainty.
Expected results of the CHASE-PL project:
Change detection in observed climate of Poland.
Projections of climate variability and change for Poland.
Large-scale climate change impact study in the basins of two large Polish rivers, the Vistula and the Odra, and in smaller sub-catchments.
Issuance of management and policy recommendations and identification of feasible adaptation measures.
Index-based assessment of climate change impacts for in-stream ecosystems, wetlands, and agrosystems.
Broad dissemination agenda, ranging from papers in ISI-rated journals, a book on climate change and climate change impacts in Poland and presentations at scientific conferences to media-oriented products (interactive web mapping system).